Who is winning the Democratic Nomination?
The 2020 election has transformed the very meaning of democracy, and we're engaged in two great debates: first, is socialism the best way for Democrats to win? Second, how far will America go in its populist shift? The answers to these questions will determine who will win the nomination and how the party will sees its future.
Let's be clear: these rankings will change over time, and the number of candidates will continue to dwindle as the primary process progresses and as candidates' chances to win the nomination shrink. So, let's see who's winning.
1. Bernie Sanders -- Bernie Sanders has been the candidate with the most progressive voters and has had a loyal base of 14 to 15%. Previously, most pundits said that his inability to grow his support means that he won't win in the early states. Since November, he has risen from 15 to 21%, and his base of support continues to grow. The cause of Bernie's rise is his ability to attract progressives and to create more progressive voters rather than convincing moderates. This strategy is risky. It all comes down to whether Warren rises again and steals some of Bernie's momentum.
2. Joe Biden -- Biden is the current frontrunner because he has stable support with African Americans and has been able to generate 25 to 30% nationally. The reason that Biden isn't at the top of these rankings is because he isn't doing well in Iowa or New Hampshire because of his inabilty to connect with voters on a one-to-one basis. This has also caused him to lose support in South Carolina. Overall, Joe Biden needs to keep his current support intact and remain the frontrunner past the first four contests to win the nomination.
3. Pete Buttigieg -- Although Pete Buttigieg has continued to struggle in early states and with communities of color, he has shown that he can be a tough opponent for the other top-tier contenders. Furthermore, Buttigieg has been the frontrunner in Iowa, and he is in the mix in New Hampshire, which could keep him in play. Though Buttigieg's campaign is the X-factor of the primary race, his chances all depend on what happens after Iowa and New Hampshire. His momentum may not be able to sustain him through future contests, unless he gains significant support from the voters of candidates who drop out. He's a dark horse candidate who is starting to gain some of the minority vote. All we can do is wait and watch for Mayor Pete.
4. Elizabeth Warren -- The true Jeb Bush of the contest, Elizabeth Warren has run out of money and time to sustain her support. The contest is now Bernie vs. Joe. Furthermore, Warren has no command of the issues, like Medicare for all. When she's reluctant to be strong on the issue, she loses support with progressives. On the other hand, her bait-and-switch plan on Medicare--she tells what she's going to pay for but not where she's going to get the money--has turned her into a politician who makes big promises but can only deliver minimal results. These problems with Medicare play into the bigger narrative that holds that she's out of touch and doesn't understand average Americans. The polls support this idea because, as she continues to talk about her plans, she continues to lose support. She's now a distant 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire. Warren still has time though, and she can get women's votes and gain momentum. Only time will tell if Warren has any hope.
5. Michael Bloomberg -- The most unconventional campaign in the 2020 contest has caused other campaigns to wonder if he can actually win the nomination. It's still too early to tell. On the one hand, the brilliance of Bloomberg's plan is that if Biden falls, he can take over the moderate wing and, with his fundraising advantages, possibly take the nomination. Furthermore, he has campaigned across Super Tuesday, which will allow him to grow his campaign rather than start to build it. But there is no indication that Biden will fall, and even if he does, Bloomberg has the same problems that Biden has. On top of that, he's an unpopular billionaire. Also, Bloomberg has really no other message than, "Beat Trump. Return to normal." The problem with that approach is that it's a mediocre message that every candidate is using in one way or another, including Joe Biden. Overall, Bloomberg is relying on stealing Biden supporters, but this will ultimately backfire.
6. Amy Klobuchar -- Klobuchar has tried to project the image of the electable Midwestern senator. Throughout this contest, her claims about her electability have been proven false due to her inability to gain voters through the debates. The problem with Klobuchar is that when voters hear her speak at a debate, they're attracted to her message and her persona for two hours, then they forget about her or they think of her as a person who isn't a serious choice. After all, this is the woman who ate a salad with a comb.
These are our rankings just before New Year's Eve. I'll be posting more analysis more frequently in the coming year.
