2020 Presidential Election If Held Today

The 2020 presidental race is at a critical point. George Floyd's death combined with the Covid-19 pandemic have tilted polling toward Biden. This analysis of the 2020 map is based on political analytics, demographic numbers, and current state trends. As of now, this race is going Biden's direction nationally, although in  critical swing states, the race is still a tossup. 

Here is the breakdown of the 2020 electoral map:  

Solid Electoral Votes:          Biden --   187

                                                 Trump -- 126

To start off, the Biden campaign has a huge advantage because Biden appeals to the Democratic Party in a significant way, while Trump is struggling to convince moderate Republicans to stay with him in 2020. Although Texas and Iowa are largely  Christian and conservative and typically are opposed to Democrats, Biden is polling in both states much better than expected. As election day approaches, Trump will brand Biden as a typical democrat, which could hurt Biden's numbers. For Biden, Virginia, Colorado, and Minnesota aren't solid because of Trump's appeal, and the fact is that Biden still needs to spend money to win these states.

Next, Ohio and Georgia are leaning toward Trump right now, but we don't have updated polling. Furthermore, we don't have evidence that Biden has invested in any of these states. Pennsylvania and Nevada are in Biden's corner because they both have a history of voting Democratic, and the voter turnout was large in 2018, and Biden has greater name recognition in these two states.

Here's the breakdown when we add the solid states with the leaning states and tilt states:

Biden Likely States(32): Virginia, Colorado, and Minnesota, Lean States(26): Nevada and Pennsylvania and 

Solid Electoral Votes: 187

Trump Likely States (44): Texas, Iowa, Lean States (34): Ohio and Georgia and 

Solid Electoral Votes: Trump :126

Biden's Solid+Leans+Tilt: 187+32+26=   245

Trump's Solid+Leans+Tilt: 126+34+44=  204

The rest of the states are plain tossups because the polls vary and because these are traditional swing states. Furthermore, both sides are spending money in these battleground states, and they could go either way. Either way the election and the polls will look completely different from the way they are today.

Something to look for: The 2020 map features new battleground states because new states are becoming more competitive, even as others are becoming more partisan.