Biden Is the Front Runner
Joseph R. Biden, Jr. is on the path to becoming the Democratic nominee for the 2020 election. Over the past few weeks, the conversation was this: “Can Biden win?” Now the question has turned into this: “Will Biden win?” The difference between these questions is one of political psychology because now people aren’t thinking about Biden as a loser; rather, they see him as a winner. They want Biden to win because they believe he will not only be able to beat Trump but that he will crush Trump. There are three main reasons for Biden’s turnaround. First, Biden has grown his base. Second, he has momentum to gain nomination. Finally, he has again become Biden.
Biden has been growing his base, and given that growth, he can win even more support. As we saw in the early primary contest in Iowa, Biden was falling among white, Latino, and Black voters. Biden’s perceived electability fell so much that his support in national polls also fell, so that he dropped into second place. Those white, Latino, and Black voters didn’t like that they couldn’t vote for a former vice president who got 8% in New Hampshire. Around the same time, Trump’s approval ratings shot up, and it looked like there was a 95% percent chance that Sanders would win the nomination, which would allow Trump to become a two-term president. That terrified everyone.
Biden started to compete in places where the playing field was even. Then came Nevada and Biden’s upswing. Although Biden lost Nevada to Sanders, he showed that he could compete, even if he was a second-place challenger. This second-place finish showed Black voters that Biden was viable, and he started to gain momentum, moving up from four- to seven- to eleven-point leads in national polls. This helped Biden win positive coverage, which led to a South Carolina victory. This changed the race because people realized when Biden was a major player. When he was one of ten voices on a debate stage, he drowned out the lesser candidates, who believed that they needed to unite the party behind Biden and save their political careers.
Victories in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday gave him so much momentum that he was able to consolidate support. Everyone expected Sanders to do well, and they all went after Bernie. The results on Super Tuesday caused a Biden revolution. He won in ten states and beat Sanders in his home turf.
The Sanders argument after Super Tuesday was that Biden only won because of his endorsements and that he would have lost to Sanders in a one-on-one battle. Throughout the week, Biden seemed strong, but people believed that Sanders would tighten the race with a victory in Michigan and other progressive states. On election night, Michigan not only rejected Sanders, but Biden was competitive in every single state, and he achieved three major wins in Mississippi, Michigan, Missouri, and he had great showings in Washington and Idaho, which resulted in Biden winning four of the five states.
Overall, Biden will beat Sanders if Biden can maintain his momentum. The next debate is pivotal for Biden, and he must make sure that he continues to lay out the case for a Biden presidency, that he stays on message, and that he shows Sanders supporters that he’s not like Hillary Clinton.
The question now is this: “When can we move on to the general election?” If Biden keeps fighting, he can expect to transition to the general election quickly. But he must bring Sanders to his side.
