It's the Economy, Stupid
In 1992, Bill Clinton campaigned on a message of economic hope in America and on the idea that every lawmaker in America should make sure that every American citizen had a job and food on the table. After Clinton's victory, many in Washington believed that the economy was the most important issue in the minds of most Americans, and for the next five or six elections, the American domestic agenda revolved around the economy.
Then came 2016, a year when people hated both candidates. Instead of focusing on the issues, Clinton and Trump focused on each other, causing a very unexpected outcome in the election of Trump. Now that the US in the middle of a battle with COVID-19 and with unemployment rates as high as they were during the Great Depression, many are wondering if the next presidential election is going to be decided by the economy.
The answer is yes, but more specifically it’s the unemployment rate that will decide the election. If the pandemic doesn’t come to a close soon and if Americans are still not back to work by November, Trump will be out of a job. But it's not a guaranteed outcome since the stock market has been so stable over the past three years, proving that even during these difficult times, consumer confidence is still strong. Trump could ride these coattails to reelection, even if 10% of America is still unemployed by election day.
The safest bet for Trump right now would be to focus on small business growth. Because 120 million Americans are employed by small businesses and more than 7.5 million small businesses are in danger of being permanently closed, it’s essential to help them survive.
If Trump were to create another stimulus package to give government loans to companies, then employers could restart their businesses and hire more employees. This could help Trump boost himself as the economic-minded president. Also, many private companies are barred from taking government loans because the savings and loans are controlled by private banks. The government should pass a law prohibiting private banks from barring small business getting aid because these government loans are the fairest deals for a small business owner. And this is one of the few opportunities to get back on track.
Overall, Trump and Biden need to understand that Americans are craving change, and whoever seems like the best guy to handle the challenges of the next four years will be elected. The winner won’t necessarily be the person with the best insults. So get to work, Washington!
